In 2023, Australia’s cattle numbers are expected to reach a 10 year peak. At the same time, obtaining enough labourers to work on meat processing floors has never been harder.
The combination of these two events does not bode well for the cattle industry.
Covid and changes to working visas have challenged many South East Queensland farmers for the past three years and similar issues within the beef cattle industry have placed a downward pressure on meat processors.
According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) the availability to processors of skilled and unskilled workers to manage the increased supply of cattle will be the major issue affecting the red meat industry in 2023.
“The processing sector’s ability to process cattle will determine production levels and therefore exports in 2023,” MLA Senior Market Information Analyst Ripley Atkinson said.
Highchester Meats director and co-owner Brian Surawski said pressures within the meat processing industry were mounting as labour shortages made it hard for some of the larger plants, like JBS Australia, to cope.
“I’m pretty good at present, my staffing levels are where I want them to be,” Mr Surawski said.
“The problem for us is that we can’t get enough of the right cattle to kill.
“We are into the lighter end of JBS, so getting the good trade cattle in is an issue for us.
“I don’t do big numbers, I try to do around 1,000 units a week.“We are not doing that at present and only killing four days a week but that’s due to lack of suitable product.”
MLA’s latest cattle projections are for national cattle herd sizes to be at their highest levels since 2014 at 28.8 million per head with prices forecast to operate at longer term averages in 2023.
“If labour concerns are not addressed within the processing sector, slaughter is forecast to reach six million head,” said Mr Atkinson.
“Based on actual supply of cattle this year, the forecasts indicate an uptick in numbers to 6.625m head.
“[This year] will be a year of transition for the cattle industry.”
Mr Surawski said his business didn’t compete with the likes of JBS as they were more into the trade cattle that went to butcher shops and wholesale market.
“There is not too many of us small processors around, we have a lot of repeat clients who produce a particular article for us.”
He said the bulk or core of his plant’s labour consisted of people who had worked for the company for many years.
“I know JBS and a few of the bigger processing plants are struggling because they are short staffed,” he said.
“I think that’s driven from the people they lost during Covid and as time’s gone on they haven’t been able to pick those staffing levels up when it comes to employees who are suitably trained.
“We don’t bone out, we just kill and chill, ours goes out in wholes, halves and quarters.
“We are a multi species processing plant so that allows us to chop and change.
“Herd numbers are starting to build after the couple of years of drought and weaner numbers are growing.”
The issue concerning him most was the lack of trade beef.
“We look for a good, high yielding European and European-cross cattle and weighing a standard carcass weight of around the 180 to 260 kilogram mark.
“That comes mainly out of feedlots because we prefer the grain or silage fed because it’s just a better article for us when it comes to butcher shop trade.”
When it comes to reasons behind the rise in cattle numbers, Mr Atkinson said the growth was underpinned by a few key factors.
“The record retention of females for 15 consecutive months coupled with above-average marking rates has delivered larger calf drops,” Mr Atkinson said.
“This bodes well for supply to increase substantially in 2023 for young and slaughter weight cattle.
“Both of these metrics suggest that the lowest or most significant retention of stock on record occurred for the year. This underpins the positive growth in numbers forecast for the next three years.”